Multiple projections on Tuesday night called Michigan’s U.S. Senate race for Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed over Republican Mike Rogers. If certified, the result would mark the first time a Muslim candidate has been elected to the U.S. Senate, according to the projections cited.
What’s been projected so far
Shortly before 10:30 p.m. ET, Polymarket posted that El‑Sayed had a “99% chance,” writing, “Polymarket projects Abdul El-Sayed has won Michigan’s Senate race, becoming the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate — 99% chance,” attributing the call to its prediction market data. Leading Report also posted that “Abdul El-Sayed [is] projected to win Michigan’s Senate race, becoming the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.” These are projections and not official results.
Context on the matchup
The Western Journal report stated that El‑Sayed defeated GOP challenger Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent. The report also stated that Rogers was narrowly defeated in 2024 by then‑Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and argued that he again fell short among Michigan Trump voters in an off‑year election. Those characterizations are the source’s analysis.
Campaign tensions noted by media
The Western Journal described El‑Sayed as a controversial candidate and pointed to his relationship with commentator Hassan Piker. In early October, CNN reported that El‑Sayed asked Piker to tone down rhetoric regarding Israel because it could cost him the election, according to CNN’s account. The Western Journal also referenced unspecified reports alleging connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, past comments about Gaza and Israel, and a lack of support from some Democrats; those are claims cited by the source and are not independently verified here.
Official results and certification were not available at the time of these projections. We will follow for confirmed totals.
